Last week, the United Nations (UN) released their new Production Gap Report. It shows the discrepancy between what countries plan to do regarding fossil fuel extraction (coal, oil and gas) versus what they should do to avoid going over the safe threshold of 1.5°C of global warming. The report focused on the top 10 fossil fuel producers: China, the United States, Russia, India Australia, Indonesia and Canada, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom. The last three already have stringent climate policies in place to be net-zero carbon by 2050.
Well, the findings are quite depressing.
- Governments are planning to produce about 50% more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway and 120% more than would be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway.
- In aggregate, countries planned fossil fuel production by 2030 will lead to the emission of 39 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. That is 13 Gt (Gigatonnes) of CO2, or 53%, more than would be consistent with a 2°C pathway, and 21 Gt of CO2 or 120% more than would be consistent with a 1.5°C pathway. This gap widens significantly by 2040.
- The continued expansion of fossil fuel production is underpinned by a combination of ambitious national plans, government subsidies to producers, and other forms of public finance.
It means that these countries fully support increasing fossil fuel extraction and production when we know that we have 10 years left to act to reverse catastrophic global warming.
So, a legitimate question on our side, as citizens, would be: Should we expect our governments to keep us safe from climate change?
We've got a bit of an ambiguous relationship with governments and their involvement in our lives and the economy. As a reminder, a government is a group of people with the authority to govern a country or state. In a democracy, they usually end up there through voters' choice. As you've read on The Leaf before, we have been running an economic system called neoliberalism since the end of the 1970's, whose rational is to put forward the power of free-markets to ensure the growth of the economy and political stability. Neoliberalism is defined by David Harvey as "a theory of political economic practices that proposes that human well-being can best be advanced by liberating individual entrepreneurial freedoms and skills within an institutional framework characterized by strong private property rights, free markets and free trade.” (Harvey 2006). In other words, free-markets are much better without state intervention, minimum legal frameworks and of course no citizen interference. Its goal is to ensure political stability through economic growth and financial prosperity.
However, as we've seen many times since then, political and financial stability hasn't exactly been at its best, with several financial crash (the biggest one being in 2008) and the worldwide scary political scene today that sometimes resulted from it. I name Trump, Brexit, trade war between China and the US, geopolitical situation in the Middle-East, Gilet Jaune movement, Hong Kong protests etc, etc, etc. On top of the climate crisis.
It's important to understand what neoliberalism is and its significance today because it shapes how our system (and therefore our governments, and us) respond to the climate crisis. Neoliberalism focuses on the (pretended) power of individual action against the power of governments and the masses. The neoliberal system requires us to act as consumers and individuals rather than as people and citizens. This is key in the way we interact with and manage our expectations from governments, especially regarding the climate breakdown which encompasses so many different issues like the protection of the natural world and ecosystems, social justice, gender equality and so on.
The neoliberalism system requires us to act as consumers and individuals rather than as people and citizens.
The UN report mentioned that governments support production in numerous ways: "They not only play central roles in the permitting of exploration and production; they also support the fossil fuel industry through direct investments, research and development funding, tax expenditures, and assumed liability and risk." At the same time, people like the French President Emmanuel Macron of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau are believed to lead the fight against climate change.
Is this not completely inconsistent and contradictory?
Yes, of course it is! And it's legitimate as citizens to feel abandoned and wonder why the heck governments are not doing more to represent our best interests, which includes creating a safe and sustainable world for you, your neighbours and your children.
Governments are now so close to the financial world, most notably through the power of lobbies, that it's hard to feel as a citizen that you can make a difference. But you can!
- Go and vote. For U.K readers, there is a General Election on 12 December. I repeat: Go and vote
- On Friday 29 November, there will be another climate strike. For those who can attend, this is a great way to put pressure on governments and feel less alone in the fight against climate change.
- Your citizens' duties and rights are not limited to voting. You can join a party, organise assemblies, read, discuss with people around you. Connecting to others and be part of a community is key to feel empowered to act.